The Kiwi Chronicle · Issue

Scores on the Doors

One chart, three truths

The plumbing

Kauri issuance tape, NZ-US basis, dairy real-money flow — the stuff that moves the kiwi when nothing else does.

Source: ANZ Research, RBNZ B2

The trade

Direction
Entry
Stop
Target
Horizon
Catalyst

What would make me wrong

Three price triggers. If any break, the trade's wrong.

  • DXY close through 104.15
  • AU-NZ 2Y spread under +30 bp
  • Iron ore above USD 118/t

Close

"A weak currency is the deserved outcome of a country doing the easy thing." — Hartnett, 2019.